Mortgage rates just hit their highest point since November 2023 at 7.40%, and Zillow's latest home-value data shows both Sarasota and Manatee County home values actually softening year-over-year, even as closed-sale prices have looked flat. Plus real, dated events around Lakewood Ranch and Sarasota through mid-November.
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.40% as of its October 8, 2026 release — up from 7.28% the week before, and the highest reading since November 2023. The 15-year fixed rose too, to 6.73% from 6.60%. A year ago, the 30-year averaged 6.30%, so today's buyer is financing a meaningfully more expensive loan than they would have been twelve months ago on the identical purchase price.
RASM's own September 2026 county report still hasn't published as of this writing (confirmed again via myrasm.com/statistics/ — August 2026 remains the latest full release, and that report was already covered in detail in a prior update). So this week I pulled a genuinely different data source: Zillow's Home Value Index, a smoothed estimate of what all homes in a county are worth, not just the ones that closed that month:
| County | Zillow Home Value Index | YoY Change | Days to Pending | Homes For Sale | New Listings | Sale-to-List Ratio | Median Sale Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota County | $396,714 | −2.9% | 56 days | 4,908 | 866 | 96.3% | $415,417 |
| Manatee County | $407,828 | −3.4% | 57 days | 3,960 | 751 | 96.8% | $426,667 |
Both counties' underlying median closed-sale prices held up reasonably well in recent monthly reports, but Zillow's broader value index tells a softer story — both counties down roughly 3% year-over-year. That gap between "what's actually selling" and "what the broader housing stock is worth" is worth paying attention to.
The rate story and the value story are connected. At 7.40%, a $450,000 mortgage now costs roughly $110 more per month than it did when rates sat at 7.03% a few weeks ago, and over $300 more than a year ago at 6.30% — that's real buying-power erosion, and it's a likely contributor to Zillow's broader value index drifting down even while closed-sale prices on the homes that do move have stayed closer to flat. For buyers, that combination — softer underlying values, elevated inventory (4,908 homes for sale in Sarasota County, 3,960 in Manatee), and days-to-pending in the mid-50s — adds up to real negotiating room, especially outside of move-in-ready, well-priced listings. For sellers, it's a reminder that pricing to this month's rate environment matters more than pricing to last year's comps; a home priced against a stale comp is a home that sits while the broader value trend works against it.
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.40% as of its October 8, 2026 release — up from 7.28% the week before and the highest reading since November 2023. Freddie Mac didn't point to a single cause; mortgage rates track the bond market's read on inflation and the broader economic outlook rather than moving in lockstep with any one headline. A year ago, the same survey showed 6.30%, so a buyer financing today is paying meaningfully more than they would have in October 2025 on the same loan amount.
By one measure, yes — Zillow's Home Value Index, a smoothed estimate of what all homes in a county are worth (not just the ones that sold), shows Sarasota County down 2.9% and Manatee County down 3.4% year-over-year as of the end of August 2026. That's a different number from the median *closed-sale* price RASM reports monthly, which has looked flatter to slightly positive in recent reports — the two measures can diverge when the mix of homes actually selling (newer, pricier, or more negotiated) differs from the broader housing stock. Neither number tells you what a specific home is worth — send me the address and I'll pull real, current comps.
Want the real numbers for your specific neighborhood, or a read on what a home you're watching is actually worth in this market? I track this data every week — reach out and I'll pull the real comps, not a generic estimate.
Market data: Zillow Home Value Index for Sarasota County, FL and Manatee County, FL, as of August 31, 2026 (median sale price, sale-to-list ratio, and over/under-list share as of July 31, 2026, Zillow's most recent available at publication). RASM's own September 2026 county report had not yet been released as of this writing, confirmed via myrasm.com/statistics/. Mortgage rate data via Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 8, 2026 release. Event details via Lakewood Ranch's official community calendar, Hunsader Farms, the Sarasota Medieval Fair, Visit Sarasota's events calendar, All Faiths Food Bank, and the Van Wezel Performing Arts Hall's published 2026–2027 season — confirm times before heading out, as schedules can shift.
Want the real numbers for your neighborhood, or a read on what your home is worth in this market? I track this data every week — reach out and I'll give you the real answer, not a generic estimate.